Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), IISD, Climate Analytics, September 2025
The Production Gap 2025
The production gap is the difference between governments’ planned fossil fuel production and global production levels consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5ºC or 2ºC. This assessment updates the one conducted in the 2023 Production Gap Report, which profiled the plans and projections of 20 major fossil-fuel-producing countries, representing a mix of the world’s largest producers.
Projected 2030 production exceeds levels aligned with limiting warming to 1.5ºC by more than 120%. To be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5ºC and reaching net zero greenhouse gas emissions, as the Paris Agreement calls for, global coal, oil, and gas supply and demand must decline rapidly and substantially between now and mid-century.