The Lancet Planetary Health, May 2025

Considerations for improving the relevance, use, and robustness of projections of the health risks of climate change

The increased interest and investment in climate change and health research and policy should be a turning point for providing policy-relevant projections of how changing weather patterns and climate trends could alter the magnitude and distribution of climate-sensitive health outcomes. Decision makers recognise that future health burdens result from interactions between exposure, sensitivity, and the capacity to adapt.

Fit-for-purpose projections to inform climate risk management should be based on a range of scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and socioeconomic development. The relevance, use, and robustness of projections would be improved by addressing the considerations outlined here.