Nature Briefing, 27 January 2025
Climate deaths will soar without action
An extra 2.3 million people in European cities could die as a result of extreme temperatures — both hot and cold — by the end of the century if decision makers don’t act to mitigate climate change. Researchers analysed temperature and mortality data from urban areas in 30 European countries to model various warming scenarios and the possible temperature-related deaths associated with them between 2015 and 2099. The results suggest that heat-related deaths will surpass those caused by cold conditions in even the most optimistic scenarios, and that temperature-related deaths overall could increase by nearly 50%.
Nature Medicine, 27 January 2025
Estimating future heat-related and cold-related mortality under climate change, demographic and adaptation scenarios in 854 European cities
Previous health impact assessments of temperature-related mortality in Europe indicated that the mortality burden attributable to cold is much larger than for heat. Questions remain as to whether climate change can result in a net decrease in temperature-related mortality.
In this study, we estimated how climate change could affect future heat-related and cold-related mortality in 854 European urban areas, under several climate, demographic and adaptation scenarios. We showed that, with no adaptation to heat, the increase in heat-related deaths consistently exceeds any decrease in cold-related deaths across all considered scenarios in Europe.