MedRxiv, 20 February 2025

Climate change and tuberculosis: an analytical framework

Climate change is likely to exacerbate a range of determinants which drive tuberculosis, the world’s leading infectious disease killer. However, tuberculosis is often neglected in wider climate health discussions.

Commissioned by the World Health Organization, we developed an analytical framework outlining potential causal relationships between climate change and tuberculosis. We drew on existing knowledge of tuberculosis determinants, identified which are likely to be sensitive to the effects of climate change, and conceptualised the mechanistic pathways through which this might occur. We collated evidence for these pathways through literature reviews. Our reviews found no studies directly linking climate change and tuberculosis, warranting research to build evidence for action.